SATURDAY 25 JUNE 13.00GMT
Wall Street gains accelerated in the last hour of trading with the Dow closing 823 points higher, the S&P 500 adding 3%, and the Nasdaq advancing 3.3% as expectations of higher and faster rate hikes cooled. While recessionary fears remained a top concern among investors, recent economic data pointing to a moderation in inflation expectations sparked speculation that central banks may take their foot off the pedal. The University of Michigan survey showed that consumer sentiment hit a record low level in June and its gauge of inflation expectations over the next 5 to 10 years, fell to 3.1% from 3.3%. All three major averages snapped three-week losing streaks with the Dow up 5.4%, the S&P 500 – adding 6.5% – its biggest advance since May 2020, and the Nasdaq surging 7.5%. The FTSE 100 jumped 2.68% to close the week at 7,208.18, booking over 2.7% gain after three weeks of declines, tracking a rebound in global markets. Reduced bond yields and cheap valuations of stocks made investors flee to risky assets while sentiment also lifted as markets bet that fears of recession will cause central banks to pull back from aggressive rate hikes by the end of 2022. Gains were led by consumer and healthcare stocks. In contrast, commodities ended in red tracking lower prices..

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PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE:2017   2019 Trades   2019  RECENT  BUYS  Lennar   RIOT QRVO  DHI    MARA   FLGT   UCTT  TER

Trading Activity– Sold[23 June] Greenbier Comp Inc @ $35.49 Sold[23 June] Suncor Energy @ $42.71CAD Sold [23 June] Golden Ocean Inc @ $11.64  Bought [10 June] Suncor Energy $52.58CAD @$15.36 – Bought [3 June] Golden Ocean Group Limited @$15.36   Sold [3 June] Textron Inc @ $66.24 Bought [1 June] Devon Energy @$76.84 Bought [31 May] Harmonic Inc @ $9.72 Sold [27 May] Dvn Energy @ $75.30  Sold [23 May]Iofina plc @ 22p

STRATEGY FOR  week commencing 27 June – June has so far proved to be a sobering month where markets have been in freefall. Dead cat bounces spring to mind where markets temporarily pick up and then retreat below their previous prices.  Last week was again one where volatility was the winner with gyrations in stock prices and indices proving that no clear direction could be accurately determined. Sentiment surveys Click here and the use of the bull/bear ratio provides a way of determining market consensus, one of which allows one to navigate market direction in these uncertain times. The Vix also provides market temperature on consensus or the fear guide. A high reading providing confirmation that investors are engaging in put buying emphasising downward price action on the Chicago Board of Trade. Previous commentaries have mentioned the extent of sovereign debt that countries are now facing. With the possible Russian debt default and spiralling interest rates, expect this to be the tip of the iceberg for future sovereign debt defaults. A case to bear in mind is that increasing interest rates will mean countries incurring even higher interest payments on their sovereign debt. Inflation continues to filter through to markets as intended future interest rate rises will reflect in curtailing share prices. So unexpected share prices rises may be based on optimism rather than reality. Bear in mind that upcoming July is normally a rebounded month for shares so one would expect that retrograde June can be put behind one. There is no hiding the fact that 2022 has so far been a dour year for share trading and one would hope that the second half of the year can be an improvement. The portfolio continues to suffer from recent market brutality with last week seeing a further -2.51% decline. Continual erosion last week led me to take decisive action by disposing of Suncor energy, Greenbier Companies Inc and Golden Ocean Group. The continual price decline since purchase of these shares meant liquidated losses. One can only let these shares fall so far. Alas Aloca the aluminium player has become a right dog and sufferance is the word with this share. Unfortunately accepting losses is necessary to protect the portfolio. Further market downside will lead me to start reducing portfolio to a bare minimum until the market improves. This week I will again be reviewing and where necessary purge the shares that have just not performed. One needs resilience in these difficult times and acceptance that market downside is the unfortunate side of the seesaw. Until next time.        

Notable facts for June

US Services sector expands the least in 15 months- The ISM Services PMI fell to 55.9 in May of 2022 from 57.1 in April, below market forecasts of 56.4 and pointing to the slowest expansion in the services sector since February of 2021. Production (54.5 vs 59.1), inventories (51 vs 52.3), and backlog of orders (52 vs 59.4) increased less than in April, but employment rebounded faster (50.2 vs 49.5) and new orders accelerated (57.6 vs 54.6).

Turkey Inflation rate 73.5% – The annual inflation rate in Turkey accelerated for the 12th consecutive month to 73.5 percent in May of 2022, the highest since October of 1998 and compared to market estimates of 76.6 percent. It contrasts with a much lower 16.6 percent from the corresponding period of the previous year, as the lira plunged further during the month and real interest rates remained largely negative.

Brent crude futures traded above $121 per barrel on 3 June , extending gains for the third session and recording a weekly advance after a keenly anticipated OPEC+ meeting delivered only a modest increase in output despite speculations of a bigger supply boost. The group of major producers decided to increase output by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August instead of the previously agreed 432,000 bpd, in a move that was seen as hardly enough to compensate for lost supply from Russia. Russian output dropped by 1 million bpd since its invasion of Ukraine and is likely to fall even further as the EU’s ban on Russian oil kicks in.

STRATEGY MONTH  NOV21  DEC21  JAN22  FEB22  MAR22  Apr22  May 22  June 22    

STRATEGY FOR week commencing 24 May 2020   10 May   3 May    26 April   19 April 12 April    6 April   29 March   22nd March    15 March   8 March   1 March    22nd February   15 Feb    8 Feb    1 Feb   25 Jan     18 Jan    11 Jan  4 Jan  28 Dec    21 Dec    14 Dec    9 Nov     2 Nov   26 Oct    19 October  12 October  5 October     28 September  21 September  14 Sept  7 Sept  31 Aug   24 Aug  17-10 Aug    3 Aug   27 July    20 July   

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PORTFOLIO WEEK COMMENCING 27 JUNE

DISCLAIMER- Nothing herein is to be construed as advice or recommendation of any kind whatsoever. All content is personal to the author who is not acting in any capacity on behalf of any others and who assumes no warranty or liability for current relevance correctness or completeness. No responsibility or liability is accepted as a consequence of reliance upon any of the content which is subject to change at any time. Please note this analysis is not advice but interpretation of potential market moves. Performance is no guide to the future. .

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