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MASTER INVESTOR  April19   May19  Jun19  July19   Aug19   Sept19   Oct19  Nov19

BBC world Service      Share Radio for UK News        US Stock Market Outlook

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE2016-Trades   2017 Trades    2017 Portfolio Performance 

Recent Purchase stock analysis: SEQI AUGEAN ENPHASE  SEGRO  NEW RIVER IOFINA 

Trading Activity Bought[19 Nov] 6470 Shares in Sequoia Economic Infrastructure Fund Ltd @ £1.155 Sold [15 Nov] 20000 Shares in Slyvania Platinum Ltd @ 37.5p  Bought[6 Nov] 3930 Shares in Augean plc @ £1.64 Bought[6 Nov] 1000 Shares in Spirent Communications plc @ £2.0175 Sold [1 Nov] 171 Shares in Lumenhum Holdings @ $65.06.

STRATEGY FOR 2 December –  It is often said that the first few weeks of the new year is a good barometer for how well the rest of the year will shape up. 2019 saw early promise and this has followed throughout the year. After the significant decline in October to December 2018, the first few months of 2019 suggested that the year would be a favourable one and so it has followed. Yes May 2019 saw a major pull back however optimism has followed since.  This year’s Black Friday was the biggest ever for online sales. Black Friday was the biggest day ever for mobile shopping in the US with $2.9 billion in sales coming from smartphones alone. 61% of all online traffic to retailers came from smartphones, 15.8% higher than last year.   Market sentiment is a powerful influencer and whether justified or not a Santa Rally looks like being factored into market performance. But as always there could be an upset in the applecart as one needs to be aware that a US trade deal with China needs to be signed before the Dec. 15 deadline to prevent a new round of import U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and the fluidity of the Hong Kong situation. In the UK, the month of December should provide some answers to the current UK political paralysis. So finally the record may at last escape the grove it’s been on and a resolution decided on 12th December on a clear direction on where the UK market is heading. A theme that I have been commenting on in recent weeks is the serious debt positions that sovereign states have found themselves in as indicated in the World Debt CLICK HERE – World Debt Clocks.  New analysis by the International Monetary Fund shows that corporate debt at risk of default could rise to $19 trillion in a major downturn occurs, equivalent to 40% of the total debt of eight major economies. Prolonged low interest rates come with negative side effects such as an increase in risk taking by investors broadly around the globe. Evidence supports the view that firms are using low interest rates and building up debt to fund mergers and acquisitions instead of investing. A review of the political manifestos in the upcoming general election has been vetted by the independent Institute of fiscal studies – CLICK HERE  who have commented on the credibility of both major parties on their spending plans. Reading  Alice in wonderland probably more appropriate as the festive season approaches. The portfolio had a positive month in November with a +4.7% increase having regained its mojo last weeks with a +1.30% increase neutralising the previous week’s decline. Despite Enphase Energy increase of +13%, it remains a poor performer since purchase. Most US shares tread water for the portfolio. Segro the UK warehousing and factory distributing share has shown its robustness since purchase with a 15.5% increase since purchase in three months with a +3% increase in last week. I took the view that Brexit uncertainty would provide a useful ammunition for this share and so far my decision has been vilified. Bristol Myers Squibb and CSX have been dour of late so early baths may be on the horizon for some profits taking after the Santa rally. I still await a final thrust in MKS instruments share price but this may yet be a forlorn hope.  Closer review of the direction of pound sterling may provide a hint on market sentiment as December 12 approaches. Keeping calm as December gathers momentum my strategy for this week. Until Next time.

STRATEGY FOR 25 November    STRATEGY FOR 18 November 



4 Dec 2019 US/UK Price Price Price Price Mrkt
Stock Shares Acquired 22-Nov 29-Nov Now Beat
FTSE 100 FTSE on Entry 7326.81 7346.53 Index View
NASDAQ NDX at Bid 8519.88 8665.47 Index
Company Symbol £ £ £
Augean plc AUG 1.64 1.80 1.75 Price£ Aug
Bellway plc BWY 17.86 33.56 33.50 Price£ Bwy
Bristol Myers Squibb BMY 39.56 43.98 44.03 Price$ Bmy
CSX Corp CSX 48.89 54.95 55.34 Price$ Csx
Enphase Energy Inc ENPH 19.75 14.86 16.92 Price$ Enph
Iofina plc IOF 0.28 0.28 0.27 Price£ Iof
Leidos Holdings LDOS 68.83 68.98 70.25 Price$ Ldos
MKS Instruments (US) MKSI 43.90 79.96 82.21 Price$ Mksi
NewRiver REIT plc NRR 1.71 1.80 1.93 Price£ Nrr
Redrow RDW 4.64 6.53 6.63 Price£ Rdw
Segro plc SGRO 7.74 8.69 8.95 Price£ Sgro
Sequoia InfrastrtFnd SEQI 1.15 1.15 1.16 Price£ Seqi
Spirent comms SPT 1.45 2.12 2.12 Price£ Spt
WkyPortfolio Perform -1.60% +1.30%

Update on shares in the portfolio

Spirent Communications Plc 8 November
Spirent maintains guidance as 5G drives growth . Spirent Communications updated the market on its trading for the third quarter on Friday, reporting that it saw continued business growth, and remained confident that it would show progress in 2019. The FTSE 250 firm said its expectations for the full year remained unchanged.It said that, as it entered a “period of upcycles” driven by 5G and the move to higher-speed ethernet testing, the company delivered a “solid performance” in the three months ended 30 September, continuing to see healthy order intake growth, in line with that seen in the first half. In networks and security, Spirent said order intake and revenue in the third quarter showed “robust growth” on the same period in 2018, underpinned by continued positive momentum of US government spending for the company’s positioning products and solutions offsetting some timing of order placement for high-speed ethernet products, driven by customers’ own technical challenges earlier in the year. Its pipeline build was said to be positive, and the outlook for growth remained unchanged.

Iofina 6 November

Iofina invests in Colorado hemp firm Organic Vines
(Sharecast News) – Iodine and specialty chemical products manufacturer Iofina announced an investment into Organic Vines OP – a feminised hemp seed production and genetics company – on Wednesday.The AIM-traded firm said Organic Vines had recently been incorporated with the intention of leasing and operating a “state-of-the-art” climate- and light-controlled greenhouse facility near Denver, Colorado, in order to produce high quality, feminised, organic certified hemp seeds. Iofina said its subsidiary, IofinaEX, had made a $0.9m investment into Organic Vines via a non-voting equity preference share, which had a first call on returns made from the grow cycle, for up to a maximum of three times the initial investment. Once the return had been achieved, the preference share class would dissolve, and Iofina would cease to have an investment in Organic Vines.

MKS Instruments 24 October

MKS Instruments’ (MKSI) Q3 Earnings Beat, Revenues Miss. MKSI reported third-quarter 2019 adjusted earnings of $1.12 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a whopping 26 cents but slumped 40.4% year over year.Revenues of $462.5 million lagged the consensus mark of $471 million and declined 5.1% year over year.Products revenues (83.5% of total revenues) were $386.2 million, down 9.4% from the year-ago quarter. Services revenues (16.5%) increased 25.3% year over year to $76.3 million.

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