MONDAY 20TH JANUARY 18.00GMT US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King holiday. Recurring fears of a hard Brexit and bets that the Bank of England will cut interest rates hit London’s FTSE 100 on Monday, while premium tonic water maker Fevertree endured its worst day ever. London’s FTSE finished lower on Monday amid thin trading volumes due to a U.S. holiday, while premium tonic water maker Fevertree and mall operator Intu tumbled among smaller stocks. European shares ended higher on Thursday after the signing of a long anticipated Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal lifted some level of near-term uncertainty, while disappointing earnings dragged down London shares. A proposed British high-speed rail project running between London and northern England could cost up to 106 billion pounds, 25% more than recently predicted. Prime Minister Boris Johnson calls for deeper investment ties between Britain and Africa at a summit for leaders of 21 African countries that comes days before his country will leave the European Union. The pound fell on Monday after comments by UK finance minister Sajid Javid stoked fears about weak ties between the UK and the European Union following the country’s departure from the bloc. Zinc prices rose to two-month highs on Monday after a break of key technical levels triggered a flurry of buying and as the market worried about historically low inventories. Stock markets in Japan and China have risen today as upbeat economic data and the US-China trade deal helped boost investor sentiment. China, one of the world’s biggest users of plastic, has announced plans to reduce single-use plastics across the country. Non-degradable bags will be banned in major cities by the end of 2020, and restaurants won’t be allowed to give out plastic straws by the end of this year. Asking prices for British houses put on sale in the five weeks to Jan. 11 rose by a record amount for the time of year, property website Rightmove said on Monday, adding to signs of a post-election bounce in consumer and business confidence. Shares in Fevertree have sunk 17% in early trade in reaction to its latest update, where it revealed revenue growth would miss expectations following a “subdued” Christmas. As a result it said full-year earnings would be about 5% lower than in 2018. .
BUDGET 2018 Highlights   NYTimes          wallSJ          FT       Guardian Telegraph       President  Trump Twitter   G20photo Jly19   US Defence Industry Cybersecurity -REGTECH UK Banks 21Jly  Trade markets without losing money Algorithms and Quantative Trading Cheap Equity Income Podcast FREE Traders education HERE     Top10StockPicks2019   Accendo 2019 Picks     Trading Biases Trade Ideas using US- ISM  LIBRA – Facebooks New Crypto  Sunspots, GDP,Markets-Dow Jones  Analysts upgrades Sept19   2020 Spend Review   wall st winners 13 Jan   World Debt Clock    
MASTER INVESTOR  2019 May  Jun July Aug   Sept   Oct  Nov   Dec   2020  Jan 20 

BBC world Service      Share Radio for UK News        US Stock Market Outlook
PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE:    2017       2019 Trades        2019                                      Recent Purchases: Volex  Cohort  SEQI  Augean  Enphase  Segro  NewRiver   Iofina

Trading Activity Bought[2 Jan] 226 Shares in Cohort plc @ £7.26 Bought[2 Jan] 5000 Shares in Volex plc plc @ £1.539 Sold [31 Dec] 195 Shares in Bristol Myers Squibb Inc @ $64.05 Bought[19 Dec] 9424 Shares in SDI Group plc plc @ £0.76 Bought[19 Dec] 1000 Shares in Spirent plc @ £2.35 Bought[19 Dec] 2000 Shares in Augean plc @ £2.11 Sold [17 Dec] 200 Shares in Leidos holdings Inc @ $91.56Bought[12 Dec] 1150 Shares in Cohort plc @ £6.05 Sold [11 Dec] 130 Shares in CSX @ $71.65

STRATEGY FOR Week Commencing 20 January – A cliché that is often espoused for the pragmatist is ‘the trend is your friend until it bends.’ Why change a winning formulae! This Cliché phrase may well explain the continuance of market sentiment where US markets continue to elevate to optimistic heights. CLICK HERE- the stock-market-is-guaranteed-to-rise-at-least-another-5-in-the-next-2-months-if-this-70-year-old-trend-holds. U.S. housing data and signs of resilience in the Chinese economy raised hopes of a rebound in global growth. U.S. stocks closed higher again ending the week at new record highs, helped by more data suggesting the economy and corporate profits are in good health. The rally last week has also been supported by at least a partial resolution of the U.S. – China trade dispute and the passage of the U.S., Mexico, and Canada trade deal by Congress. So what keeps the driving the markets to unconventional heights one may ask. I suggest look no further than the FED as bond issuance  now becomes the new artificial candy cash. The new 20-year bond was chosen after Treasury officials floated proposals for a 50-year or 100-year bond!  CLICK  HERE US government bond rates rise as treasury announces plan to sell 20 year debt. In the UK Pre-Brexit celebrations may have been tempered last week as dismal retail sales data report drove the FTSE 100 higher and pound lower as rate-cut fever builds. Yield my dear friend, where can one find one is an investor’s dilemma. The prospect of further reductions in interest rates in February look on the cards as several Bank of England policy makers have voiced support for an interest-rate cut recently, while data earlier this week showed consumer prices falling, which also helps build a case for policy easing. Post Brexit free market economics look certain to re-calibrate interest rates to what the Bank of England believe will be necessary to offset the uncertain post Brexit world. Consequences my dear friend consequences. Reducing interest rates on the pretense of artificially keeping the economy on track will further lead to bubble acceleration in house prices as housing affordability in the UK becomes even more inaccessible. Manipulating interest rates to artificially keep the show on the road means more pain in the future. Alas Debt acceptance is now part of the new world order both at an individual, nation and sovereign, but at what consequences! Last year I have continually emphasised the dangers of operating beyond one means. For a stark reminder of the crippling levels of rolling national debt owed by nations CLICK HERE – World Debt Clocks. I previously commented that seasonally the second week of January is the weakest week for the market in the whole year. Around the middle of the third week, the market has tended to rebound sharply as has seemed to have happen. For connoisseurs of Elliot Wave the diagnosis is that were now in the fifth wave of a mature trend so the party to the upside to continue for a little while longer. As a cautionary note I’m always reminded of the words from a Billionaire investor Warren Buffet -October 2008 – New York Times ‘A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.’ Something to be borne in mind. In the US earnings season is now upon us so this may provide a useful guide to forthcoming market sentiment. The portfolio returned with positivity last week with a sterling +4.82% increase following the prior’s weeks -3.24% decline. Nearly all shares saw  % increases.  Spirent communications has continued to suffer from downgrades from Goldman Sacs, Investec and Barclays. Yet week on week the stock recovered with a +11.30% share price increase week on week. Augean plc +8.65% increase, Volex plc  +8.55% , Segro plc +3.29%. Housing shares Bellway and Redrow continue to enjoy a post-election bounce increasing +3.82% and 1.98% week on week respectively. Cohort plc the UK defence stock increasing +3.29%. My US Stocks MKSI increasing +7.11% and Enphase Energy +4.43%. I will be looking to capitalise on the upcoming MKSI earnings announcement on the 28th January on a share disposal if market sentiment pushes the share to $121 a share for profit taking. This week I will look to keep the reins in as the UK prepares to leave the EU which may well see sterling rise on its pseudo freedom. Until Next Time.

STRATEGY FOR 13 January 2020          STRATEGY FOR 6 January 2020  



20 Jan2020 US/UK Price Price Price wkchge 20-Jan Price Mrkt
Stock Shares Acquired 10-Jan 17-Jan % 18.00gmt Now Beat
FTSE 100 FTSE on Entry 7587.85 7674.56 -0.30 7651.44 Index
NASDAQ NDX at Bid 9178.86 9388.94 0.00 9388.94 Index
Company Symbol £ £ £ % £ $1.299
Augean plc AUG 1.64 2.08 2.26 -1.77 2.22 Price£ Aug
Bellway plc BWY 17.86 38.50 39.97 1.45 40.55 Price£ Bwy
Cohort plc CHRT 6.05 7.20 7.30 0.00 7.30 Price£ Chrt
Enphase Energy Inc ENPH 19.75 23.30 24.33 0.08 24.35 Price$ Enph
Iofina plc IOF 0.28 0.27 0.26 -1.53 0.26 Price£ Iof
MKS Instruments (US) MKSI 43.90 82.37 88.23 0.08 88.30 Price$ Mksi
NewRiver REIT plc NRR 1.71 1.96 1.94 -0.82 1.93 Price£ Nrr
Redrow RDW 4.64 7.59 7.74 2.71 7.95 Price£ Rdw
SDI Group plc SDI 0.76 0.82 0.89 0.00 0.89 Price£ Sdi
Segro plc SGRO 7.74 8.70 8.99 -0.47 8.95 Price£ Sgro
Sequoia InfrastrtFnd SEQI 1.15 1.17 1.18 -0.84 1.17 Price£ Seqi
Spirent comms SPT 1.45 2.04 2.27 1.98 2.32 Price£ Spt
Volex plc VLX 1.54 1.52 1.65 3.03 1.70 Price£ Vlx
WkyPortfolio Perform -3.84% +4.82%

Update on shares in the portfolio

Spirent Communications plc 8 January

Goldman Sachs and Investec downgrades Spirent Communications to sell.

Iofina plc 20 December

Iofina makes progress on Oklahoman production plant. Specialty chemical manufacturer Iofina has continued to make progress on the construction of IO#8, its fifth iodine production plant in western Oklahoma.Iofina said the plant, where work began in late September, was coming together on time and within budget and was also expected to contribute to production in the first half of 2020. The AIM-listed group said iodine production at its existing production plants continued to perform in line with expectations, with Iofina Resources on track to produce 305-325 metric tonnes of crystalline iodine in the second half. Iofina anticipates that the addition of IO#8 will grow production rates further next year, which comes at an advantageous time for the group as the iodine global market supply continues to be “tight”.Chief executive Tom Becker said: “We are pleased with this year’s production rates, with the final year-end total expected to be a record yearly production volume of iodine for the company.

Spirent Communications plc 16 December

World’s Newest International Airport Turns to Spirent Communications to Assure Critical Communications for Travellers and Airlines. Spirent Communications plc (LSE:SPT), a leading provider of test, assurance and analytics solutions for next-generation devices and networks, announced that it has been working with Beijing Daxing International Airport to test and assure security, reliability and high-availability of information systems deployed across the airport premises. Beijing’s new airport is home to the world’s largest single-structure airport terminal and an unprecedented mix of new network and communications technologies. Spirent’s professional services team executed on an extensive four-month plan through the summer of 2019 as the airport prepared to welcome its first passengers. This work included field testing the airport’s networks and data center, traveler Wi-Fi, network security and the other key supporting systems.

SDI Group plc 17 December

SDI Group profits climb amid sensor and control growth. SDI Group, formerly known as Scientific Digital Imaging, on Tuesday reported a surge in annual profits thanks to revenue growth in its sensor and control units. The scientific technology manufacturer booked a profit before tax of £1.5m for the 12 months ended 31 October, a 27% jump on the year before, as revenue leapt by 42% to £11.4m. SDI said this increase was propelled by a 58% leap in turnover to £5.8m at its five sensor and control units, which followed double-digit growth from the Sentek, Astles and Applied Thermal Control businesses. Meanwhile, the contribution from the digital imaging segment rose by 29% to £5.6m. Sales improved by 36% from acquisitions made in the previous year, which included Thermal Exchange Limited, Graticules Optics Limited and MPB Industries Limited, while overall organic revenue grew by 6%.The AIM traded company said its order book was in line with expectations as it stated that the even division of its sales across North America, the UK and rest of Europe and China helped to offset some of the impact of Brexit uncertainty.

Spirent Communications plc 16 December

Spirent Communications plc (LSE:SPT), a leading provider of test, assurance, and analytics solutions for next-generation devices and networks, announced the successful outcome of its collaboration with China Mobile to create a realistic 5G device test system.

Cohort plc 12 December

Independent technology group Cohort reported first-half revenue of £60.2m on Thursday, rising from £39.5m year-on-year, adding that on a like-for-like basis, revenues were up 17%. The AIM-traded firm said its adjusted operating profit was £4.0m in the six months ended 31 October, rising from £1.0m, while on a like-for-like basis, adjusted operating profit was ahead 120%. Adjusted earnings per share were up to 6.94p from 1.99p. Cohort said its order intake for the period was £77.2m, compared to £45.6m a year ago, while its closing order book stood at £206.7m, compared to £190.9m at the end of April. Net debt was £6.8m, swinging from net funds of £4.7m a year earlier, and widening from net debt of £6.4m at the start of the period. The board declared an interim dividend of 3.2p per share, up 12% from the 2.85p distribution announced 12 months prior. The order book of nearly £207m underpins a significant proportion of the second half revenue, and, as in recent years, and the company expected a stronger second half.

Segro plc 12 December

Segro sells warehouse portfolio for £241m
SEGRO said it had sold a portfolio of UK big box warehouses for £241m to a fund advised by Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing in joint venture with Thor Equities Group.The transaction was expected to complete by the end of the year, Segro said on Tuesday. The portfolio comprises seven stand-alone big box warehouses with a total floor space of 203,400 sq metres. Chief executive Phil Redding said: proceeds of the sale would be recycled into Segro’s existing and future development programme, including UK big box logistics parks developed using the Roxhill platform bought last year.

NewRiver 2 December

NewRiver REIT completes acquisition of Sprucefield Retail Park. Real estate investment trust NewRiver on Monday said it had completed its acquisition of Sprucefield Retail Park in Lisburn, Northern Ireland.
NewRiver took ownership of Sprucefield from Intu Properties for £40m, paid out of existing resources and available credit facilities and representing a net initial yield of 8.7%. The FTSE 250-listed trust said the acquisition would generate an additional £3.7m of annualised net property income, which was also expected to be highly accretive to underlying funds from operations and significant in improving the group’s dividend cover – the company’s key priority.

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