THURSDAY 20TH FEBRUARY 01.00 GMT The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to record closing highs on Wednesday as optimism that China would take more measures to prop up its economy eased concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic. The dollar gained while several U.S. and European equity indexes scaled fresh peaks on Wednesday after China reported another decline in new coronavirus cases and on expectations of Chinese stimulus to counter a slowdown in growth. FTSE 100 rebounds as new virus cases drop, housebuilders jump. London’s FTSE 100 rebounded in tandem with global markets on Wednesday as housebuilders advanced after HSBC upgraded its view on the stocks ahead of a first batch of results next week, while the number of new coronavirus cases in China fell. European shares notched a fresh record high on Wednesday, supported by a weaker euro, while a decline in the number of new coronavirus cases raised hopes that the impact of the epidemic on the global supply chain would be short-lived. UK inflation has risen to 1.8% Economists had forecast a 1.6% rise in inflation. London’s FTSE 100 rebounded in tandem with global markets on Wednesday as housebuilders advanced after HSBC upgraded its view on the stocks ahead of a first batch of results next week, while the number of new coronavirus cases in China fell. UK average house prices increased by 2.2% over the year to December 2019, up from 1.7% in November 2019, says the Office for National Statistics. U.S. stock index futures advanced on Wednesday as signs of slowing coronavirus infections and expectations that China would take more steps to bolster its virus-hit economy helped investors return to equities after Apple’s sales warning. British inflation unexpectedly rose to a six-month high in January, pushed up by higher petrol prices and a smaller-than-usual drop in airfares, official data showed on Wednesday.
BUDGET 2018 Highlights   NYTimes          wallSJ          FT       Guardian Telegraph       President  Trump Twitter   G20photo Jly19   US Defence Industry Cybersecurity -REGTECH UK Banks 21Jly  Trade markets without losing money Algorithms and Quantative Trading Cheap Equity Income Podcast FREE Traders education HERE     Top10StockPicks2019   Accendo 2019 Picks     Trading Biases Trade Ideas using US- ISM  LIBRA – Facebooks New Crypto  Sunspots, GDP,Markets-Dow Jones  Analysts upgrades Sept19   2020 Spend Review   wall st winners 27 Jan   World Debt Clock    
MASTER INVESTOR 2019 May  Jun July Aug  Sept   Oct  Nov  Dec  2020  Jan  Feb

BBC world Service      Share Radio for UK News        US Stock Market Outlook
PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE:    2017       2019 Trades        2019                                      Recent Purchases:  RLE  Volex  Cohort  SEQI  Augean  Segro  NewRiver   Iofina

Trading Activity Bought [11 Feb] 557 Shares in Segro plc@ £9.19 Bought[10 Feb] 10000 Shares in Real Estate Investors plc @ £0.5639 Sold[4 Feb] 400 Shares in Enphase Energy Inc @ $35.52 Bought[2 Jan] 226 Shares in Cohort plc @ £7.26 Bought[2 Jan] 5000 Shares in Volex plc plc @ £1.539 Sold [31 Dec] 195 Shares in Bristol Myers Squibb Inc @ $64.05

STRATEGY FOR Week Commencing 17 February Domestic events in the UK last week seem to overshadow the continuing global concern over the unpredictability and spread of the coronavirus. The previous week’s decision on communication issues following  UK Government’s intention of allowing Chinese firm Huawei in British 5G development continues to affect UK/US relations as ‘I’m not anybody’s poodle’ emphasises that British UK PM has his own way of doing business. Last week the UK Government made another controversial decision on the HS2 transportation extension to the Midlands and with the cabinet shuffle seeing a new UK chancellor being appointed means the spring budget now probably being shifted to another date. Whenever the UK budget gets presented confusion is still the main beneficiary as UK opposition still provides entertainment with their own leadership contest in full flow. Expect surprises to emerge pre budget as regional redistribution a likely outcome with the north emerging as the beneficiary.  ‘Escaping the madness’ with a steep rise in Londoners moving to northern England could well see regional redirection by the UK Government as payback to the new voters for the north. CLICK HERE Last week Global markets responded with robustness as US markets again defied the coronavirus concerns posting continual higher share prices. The devil is always in the detail as European stocks struggled and German growth stagnates CLICK HERE. Data shows that Germany’s economy stalled in the fourth quarter, with flat gross domestic product falling short of expectations for a 0.1% rise. Germany export economy relies on China. With an aging population, political upheaval of Mommy Merkel’s party (Germany skimps on supporting NATO), Brexit, contagion in China, and scrambling of global supply network (Trump’s trade tariffs), Germany faces real headwinds. Defensive sector allocation strategies may be highlighted in times of uncertainty. Chinese growth having long being considered an essential element for other countries growth stories could be seriously affected on countries own domestic markets. The continued uncertainty of coronavirus may well have put a spanner in the works to Asian markets as containment and control begin to filter into economic performance of affected nations GDP. Currency volatility could become the beneficiary depending on country affliction with the health effects. The portfolio rebounded with conviction with a +4.49% increase week on week. The portfolio displayed divergences with the majority providing sterling positive performance combined with negative outcomes. UK housebuilders have seemed to be in the ascendency as winners for 2017 with both Bellway +4.79% and Redrow +7.26% week on week increases. The immunity of Housebuilders to FTSE 100 overall performance seemed to coincide with the Bank of England suggested downward interest rate policy directive. Spirent Communications a share that has defied the almighty Goldman and Barclays responded with a defiant +12% increase week on week as investors continue to support the share despite the institutional negative bias shown. US Share MKS Instruments last week hit $122 a share, subsequently ending the week on $118. The target territory approaches and a return to this resistance level may well convince me to take profits. Other notable performers included Augean +1.8%, SDI +3.5% Volex +8.33%. I decided to add to position in Segro on the basis that factory warehouse and distribution network post Brexit to become an important factor given the new interest in free ports to be developed in the UK. On the downside Iofina the resource stock continues to disappoint and the heavy declines in this stock since purchase shows that one will always have a disappointment. The initial reason for the choice of this stock being the scarcity of iodine has simply not materialised and further declines may force me to accept an unacceptable loss on this resource stock. Its president’s day on Monday 17th February so US markets will be taking a brief break. Traditionally February is a strong month for gold and silver which will be further endorsed by them acting as safe haven assets given the impact of global health concerns. Fact is stranger than fiction but films like 24 Hours, Suspect (1960) with a team of scientists researching plague cures, find their work is being suppressed. And horror film Reptile 1966. Where a deadly epidemic spreads through the remote Cornish village of Clagmoor Heath shows just how fiction may be closer to reality and as a timely reminded that caution is the watchword for 2020. Until Next Week.

STRATEGY FOR Week Commencing 10 February         Week Commencing 3 February


20 Feb2020 US/UK Price Price Price wkchge 20-Feb Price Mrkt
Stock Shares Acquired 07-Feb 14-Feb % 01.00gmt Now Beat
FTSE 100 FTSE on Entry 7466.70 7409.13 0.65 7457.02 Index
NASDAQ NDX at Bid 9520.51 9731.18 0.88 9817.18 Index
Company Symbol £ £ £ % £ $1.291
Augean plc AUG 1.64 2.14 2.18 0.92 2.20 Price£ Aug
Bellway plc BWY 17.86 40.33 42.26 1.77 43.01 Price£ Bwy
Cohort plc CHRT 6.05 7.00 6.80 0.59 6.84 Price£ Chrt
Iofina plc IOF 0.28 0.25 0.21 9.05 0.23 Price£ Iof
MKS Instruments (US) MKSI 43.90 85.58 90.45 0.18 90.61 Price$ Mksi
NewRiver REIT plc NRR 1.71 1.89 1.91 -0.73 1.90 Price£ Nrr
Real Estate Investors RLE 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.00 0.57 Price£ Rle
Redrow RDW 4.64 7.71 8.27 2.42 8.47 Price£ Rdw
SDI Group plc SDI 0.76 0.80 0.83 0.00 0.83 Price£ Sdi
Segro plc SGRO 7.74 9.07 9.33 -1.24 9.22 Price£ Sgro
Sequoia InfrastrtFnd SEQI 1.15 1.15 1.14 0.52 1.15 Price£ Seqi
Spirent comms SPT 1.45 2.19 2.46 4.68 2.57 Price£ Spt
Volex plc VLX 1.54 1.38 1.50 -5.69 1.41 Price£ Vlx
WkyPortfolio Perform +0.685% +4.49%

Update on shares in the portfolio

MKS Instruments Inc 11 Feb

MKS Instruments a global provider of technologies that enable advanced processes and improve productivity announced that its board of Directors has authorised a quarterly dividends of $0.20 per share.

Bellway plc 7 Feb

Bellway reports record H1 quarter output. House builder Bellway reported record first half volume output, with the completion of 5,321 new homes, a rise of 6.3%, as it said full year profits would be in line with estimates.Housing revenue rose by almost 4% to around ?1.5bn, mainly driven by strong growth in housing completions, which rose by 6.3% to 5,321, partially offset by a 2.5% fall in the average selling price. The company said the rise had been driven by low interest rates and higher loan to value mortgage products due to the government’s help to buy scheme. Bellway said pre-tax profits were expected to be in line with market guidance of ?622m.

Redrow plc 5 Feb

Redrow H1 profits fall 15%. Housebuilder Redrow posted a drop in first-half profit on Wednesday amid falling completions, as it announced the departure of executive chairman John Tutte. In the six months to the end of December, pre-tax profit declined 15% to £157m, with revenue down 10% to £870m and legal completions 14% lower at 2,554. The total order book was flat at £1.2bn but private net reservations were up 18% to £936m. Earnings per share fell 10% to 37.2p and the interim dividend nudged up to 10.5p a share from 10p. Redrow said the results were in line with its expectations that revenue would be “considerably more weighted” than usual to the second half due to constrained outlet growth last year and the timing of apartment block completions. The company said the wider housing market continued to be affected by political uncertainty around Brexit and during the run-up to the general election. Redrow stated that current market conditions, combined with our very strong order book gave them confidence this will be yet another year of progress for Redrow and our expectations for the full year remain unchanged. Broker Peel Hunt said:”The group had already flagged the H2 bias in the current year and there has been no change to expectations on timing. Post election trading conditions have picked up but this is more likely to drop into FY21 results than this year.

New River REIT 22 January

NewRiver REIT maintains Q3 dividend after ‘resilient’ performance. Real estate investment trust NewRiver maintained its third quarter dividend on Wednesday following a “resilient” operational performance during the period. Over the three months ended 31 December, NewRiver saw continued stability in its operational metrics – with an increase in retail occupancy to 96.1%, footfall outperforming the UK benchmark by 60 basis points and a healthy demand for the group’s retail space after signing deals across 152,000 square feet, with long-term deals on terms ahead of previous passing rent and ERVs. Over at the group’s pub unit Hawthorn Leisure, NewRiver said like-for-like earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation had risen 4.9% year-to-date, while pub occupancy inched forward to 97.9% from 96.9% at the end of the previous quarter.

Iofina plc 16 January

Iofina updates market on ‘exceptional’ year. Iodine and specialty chemicals company Iofina updated the market on what it called an “exceptional year” on Thursday, in which it produced a record volume of crystalline iodine and continued to execute on its commitment to growth and increased profitability.
The AIM-traded firm said full-year 2019 crystalline iodine production totalled 602.7 metric tonnes, with 316 tonnes produced in the second half, in line with its 305 to 325 tonne half-year expectations.
The firm said it was continuing its exploration program, and progressing towards determination of the next plant site for the expansion of iodine production. It made a strategic investment into Organic Vines OP during the year, which is a hemp seed growing operation in Colorado. The company was also working to develop CBD and hemp opportunities in Belize and Central America.

Spirent Communications plc 16 january

Barclays downgrades Spirent on valuation after stellar run in 2019. Analysts at Barclays Research downgraded their view on shares of Spirent from ‘equalweight’ to ‘underweight’, telling clients that the stock’s valuation was “out of sync” with testing peers. The broker’s call followed a 112.0% run-up in the share price over the course of 2019, which easily outsripped the European technology sector’s 35.0% jump and its peers’ 75% jump. Driving the price up were its leading positions in next-generation Ethernet testing and the 5G cycle, the analysts said, which had led to a 5.5% year-on-year increase in revenues, a pace not witnesses since 2014/15. Yes, the company would continue to benefit from the longer 5G development and deployment cycle – but mostly in Wireline – and it would struggle to gain market share in Wireless versus the established players. As well, restructuring had delivered stronger margins but those were already towards the upper end of the firm’s medium-term guidance.

Augean plc 13 January

Augean reports continued strength through fourth quarter. Specialist waste management company Augean updated the market on its trading on Monday, reporting that it had continued to be strong through the final quarter. The AIM-traded firm said it expected, subject to audit, to report adjusted profit before tax for the year ended 31 December “at least in line with” recently-upgraded consensus market expectations. Those expectations were for around £18.4m, the company said in its short statement.


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